Dissecting a Disaster Pt. 1

So as you likely read yesterday, I had a rough match two nights ago against a good HU reg. The match was very back and forth and ended with me being down 7-8 buy ins. I thought it would be a good exercise, and an interesting read, for me to review some of the big hands from the match. Ill do some analysis on the hands and I love to hear some feedback from some readers to see what people think. Today, I am using hands from one of the tables in my match, later I will likely do hands from the other table.

Some background on the match: my opponent was a competent thinking HU reg at the NL100 level. I didnt know it at the time, but he later told me that he was a member of deucescracked and has watched a bunch of HU videos and played many hours on the virtual felt. At the beginning of the match, he was very aggressive, especially pre flop. I started playing back at him and was able to get him to stack off lightly angainst some of my better hands. As I saw how lightly he was putting money into the pot, I lessened the threshhold for which I would put in money. This cause some big pots with mediocre hands for both of us. We both got super deep (3-4 hundred BBs) and were 3betting a ton. After my opponent realized that I had seriously loosened up, he then tightened his ranges for 3betting and calling 3bets, especially out of position. I on the other hand, didnt adjust at all and was still never giving him credit. He would then value bet the crap out of me and call me down when he knew I was bluffing. All of this will be evident from the hands. So here we go:

I get there on the river: My opponent was 3betting a ton, so I dont think calling here in position is terrible. On the flop, he leads into me for 3/4 pot and his range is still very very wide. I think raising here is the best play because it gets a fold from a bunch of hands and even if he shoves (his only option if he has a hand), I still have a bunch of equity. If I call on the flop, and a blank comes on the turn, what do I do if he bets big? I dont like flatting or shoving there since I dont have as much equity. Raising and calling if shoved on allows me to bypass this conundrum and I have a bunch of outs if and Im currently behind. Plus, I obv get there on the river.

A preflop rarity: This is a bit later in the match and my opponent is still pretty aggro. I think this is a pretty standard spot and we end up getting it in against the exact same hand.

I get sucked out on: This hand plays out very similarly to the first. I have a big draw, with overs so if he does have a hand I still have some equity. I end up getting it in against one of the best possible hands to be facing but he ends up getting his perfect card.

I get lucky: At this point in the match he had hit some hands and cut my lead. I open T9o and get three bet. As Ive mentioned he has been doing this pretty light and a bunch. Calling here is pretty thin, but we're ridiculously deep so im looking for a good flop. I end up flopping a gutshot and he leads into me which doesnt mean too much, its a flop that doesnt hit much and he cbets pretty often. I decide to float and hope to take it away on a later street. I end up hitting gin on the turn and decide to call his turn bet. He leads into me on the river and I think I'm gonna be taking all of his chips. I shove and unfortunately he folds. The replayer doesnt show it but he ended up tanking pretty long and wrote "So you have T9 huh?" in the chat box. I think he probably had something like AJ or better and made a very nice fold.

I get NO credit: I pick up 99 OTB and get 3bet. I am not 100% sure what the right play is here. 99 is a pretty strong hand HU but I havent really been 4 betting much so I really only expect to get called by better hands or ones I'm racing with (maybe not true). I flop a set on a draw heavy board so I raise his cbet to price out flush or straight draws. He ends up calling which kind of confused me, but I wasnt slowing down. He checks to me on the turn and I feel compelled to bet again, to make sure he doesnt get a free card. He shoves on me and I call, pretty sure Im ahead but assuming I am up against a pretty good hand. I was incorrect and he had J10, for a pair and a gutshot. I guess I had been pretty aggro to get shoved on there. A blank falls on the river and I take all his chips.

A mistake ridden hand: This might be one of the worst hands I played all night. I raised with 89ss and get 3bet. If I had been deeper, calling would be fine, but he only has 100bbs. Im sure I didnt have the odds there, even if he was 3betting wide. The flop comes with an J85 rainbow. He leads into me again and I have a pair on a pretty dry board. When he leads into me I have a decision to make: raise or call. I think raising has its merits since I could take the pot down right there if he has air and fold if I get shoved on. Calling also has benefits, it allows me to reevaluate on the turn without putting a big portion of my stack in, but it doesnt give me any information about the strength of his hand. A virtual blank on the turn and he leads into me again. This should have been a warning sign to me; he cbets alot but doesnt seem to two-barrel much. At this moment I did something that has been plaguing me for months now. I say to myself, "he hasnt been 2barreling me much so he should be strong...but wait, he hasnt been 2barreling me much so this would be a perfect time to be bluffing with a 2barrel." I end up leveling myself and making a play I originally hated. I shove and get called by TPTK and cant suck out.

Two barrels are strong you idiot!: I open Q8o and call a 3bet in position. Two factors led me to call, a) We're deep over 200bbs, if I get a big flop, I can win a bunch of chips b)he's been three betting a ton so Q high may be good. I hit top pair and get led into. I'm not sure what to do in this spot again, but I probably should raise here to get a fold from hands from outs (two overs, straight and flush draws). Instead, I call to get value from worse hands. The turn comes a relative blank and he leads out again. I probably should have known something was up based on his previous strength when 2barreling, but I do probably the worst play possible and shove. I really only get called by better and get folds from worse. Plus do I really wanna play a 200bbs pot with only a pair of 8s Q kicker? I think not.

Cant fold to an overbet: I 3bet from the BB with 99, which is super standard. He calls which doesnt really narrow his range down much since we are super deep. The flop comes out all low cards which I'm loving. I lead out for 3/4 pot and get called. One of the worst cards in the deck comes out on the turn, putting a 4 straight on the board, now any ace has a straight. So I check and so does my opponent. The river comes a 6, which to me seems like a good card since it completes the straight. I check and he bets pot, now this is a strange spot. I have invested some money in the pot and the only way he has me beat is if he has a 7, which isnt a likely card in his range unless he has exactly 76 or 77. I think hes trying to push me off and I call, to see his A7. I guess he was floating on the flop and got lucky on the turn, we've all been there.

I call a river bluff: I 3bet with JJ and get called, which could be alot of hands. I get a great flop of all undercards and make my standard cbet. The turn comes the Qc which is defintely not a good card for me. Not only is it an overcard to my pair but it also completes a flush draw for him if he had two clubs. I check, which looking back on it, I dont think is a good play. I give up the initiative in the hand and Im not really trapping since my hand isnt really a monster. My opponent bets into me and because I still have a pretty strong hand, and a good flush draw I decide to call. The river completes the flush for me and I check again. I actually was just trying to see a showdown which is pretty weak tight, but I didnt wanna have to call a really big bet on the river. He does bet out, 69 into a $104 pot. I dont think I can fold with the 3rd nuts here, plus he had been betting bigger with his strong hands and betting smaller on bluffs so I called and saw that he was on pure air.

My value bets get called down light: This is a pretty standard hand where I just valuebet my overpair. But I put it in to exemplify how little credit I was getting. He calls my 3bet and every street thereafter with T2. Yes T2, he just has a pair of 2s on every street but he must think I had nothing. One thing about this hand I really regret is the size of the river bet, I make it 68 into 114. I really think I could have made it 85 and gotten a call. Blah

Again, I cant get away from top pair: I call a 3bet with A6 which I think is fine since he has a pretty wide range. I call a cbet on a A88 flop which again I think is standard. On a blank turn, he checks and I decide to check back for deception. The river comes a K which should be a good card for me: if he has a better A, we now chop and if he has a K, he now has a pair. I think I probably should have bet, but he ends up betting for me 41 into 47. I knew this was probably strong, because of my previoius read but I think my hand is too strong to fold, especially since I chop with AQ and AJ. He ends up showing AK, which takes the pot. I think he played his hand really well and AK was definitely not a hand I put him on because of his check on the turn. I probably call a bet on the turn but I think he definitely played the hand well.

Very strange hand: I raise, and 4bet with AKo. The flop comes out pretty wet, so I decide to check it back. The turn isnt great either so I check it back again. I river a K which completes a flush and he fires 44 into 54. I have a good hand but its definitely not great so I call and he shows K8. So he called a 4bet out of position with K8. I dont really like his play to say the least, especially since I think Ive 4bet two other times in our match out of ever 500 hands. Eh, weird hand and weird line by both of us.

The back breaker: This hand was the last of my whole session. I 3bet with AQo and get called. I flop top pair on a dry board (Q95 rainbow) and lead out. My opponent calls. The turn brings the T and I lead again. My opponent raises and I am stuck in a quandary. I have a strong hand against a player that often doesnt give me credit, but we're super deep and I only have one pair. He raises pot, I think, I end up shoving and get snapped off with KJ. Again he hits the perfect card after floating me, very frustrating. This hand was tough to take and caused me to quit him not much later. What do you think I should have done on the turn?

Hope you guys enjoyed! Part 2 will come soon!